Bitcoin’s recent price drop proves it’s not a ‘safe haven’ investment

Bitcoin, a digital cryptocurrency born in 2009 on the heels of the last major financial crisis, has long been propped up by the idea that it is akin to digital gold. It’s been regarded as a “safe haven” type of investment, something that you can safely pack your money into when stock prices are falling. 

Judging by the price action in the past couple of weeks, however, Bitcoin is definitely not that — at least, not yet. 

In just two days, the price of Bitcoin has halved, going from around $8,000 to about $4,000, according to CoinMarketCap (the price actually went even lower on individual exchanges such as Coinbase). The prices of other cryptocurrencies followed suit, most with even bigger losses. 

Image: coinbase

And while reasons behind crypto price changes have often been arcane, this time they’re not very hard to guess: Bitcoin was merely following other risk-on assets such as stocks, which have been plummeting due to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. In the last two days, the S&P index, which tracks 500 major U.S. companies, has dropped from about 2,900 to 2,500. It’s not as steep a drop as Bitcoin’s, but it is absolutely crushing and comparable to the largest market crashes in history. 

In finance, a risk-on asset is an asset that’s volatile and inherently risky, including stocks and commodities. A risk-off asset is something that doesn’t typically yield massive returns, but will likely hold up well in times of crisis, and this includes low-yield government bonds, cash, and, to a degree, gold. While gold is often itself too volatile to be considered a risk-off asset, it’s been a good haven in times of crisis; for example, its price held up fairly well during the subprime mortgage financial crisis of 2007-2009. 

Bitcoin, having been launched after that crisis, was thriving during the longest bull run in history — an 11-year period in which stock prices rose basically without a pause. The theory that it was a risk-off asset, or at least a hedge for potentially falling stock prices, went untested until a few days ago. 

Bitcoin’s sharp price drop has caught some of its proponents off guard. Brian Armstrong, the co-founder and CEO of crypto exchange Coinbase, said in a recent tweet that he “would have expected the opposite.”

So, what’s happening?

“The macroeconomic backdrop of fear and panic is driving this move,” Charles Hayter, CEO of CryptoCompare, told Mashable in an e-mail. “The arguments of a flight to safety for Bitcoin are being unwound by this onslaught.”

Many have pointed out that the idea that Bitcoin is a risk-off asset or a safe haven is, basically, madness given the cryptocurrency’s notorious volatility. By definition, a safe haven isn’t something that can gain or lose half of its value in a matter of days (and such price moves aren’t uncommon for Bitcoin; see 2017 and 2018). 

Trader Alex Krüger pointed this out on Twitter, later clarifying that though the trading action resembles a “risk-on asset,” the philosophical discussion as to whether it is one should be left for “another occasion.”

In other words, dreams and wishes are one thing, but the current reality is something else. 

Hayter pointed out that Bitcoin is still nascent, which might be one reason behind this extreme volatility. It will likely take a while until it becomes stable enough to even be considered as a risk-off asset. But he’s not sure governments will be able to calm the crisis with their typical measures, which so far have been reducing central bank interest rates. 

“In times like these, people rush to what is familiar,” he said. But governments are “almost out of their bag of tricks.” Perhaps, long-term, cryptocurrencies can offer a different, viable route. 

While the risk-off asset theory is busted for now, there’s still some hope for the “digital gold” Bitcoin theory. In an extremely sharp stock sell-off such as the one we’ve seen in the past couple of days, the price of gold typically drops as well — and it happened this time, too. This is because leveraged traders (those who borrowed money to trade) need liquidity to cover their losses in a market crash, so they have to sell their other, less volatile assets, such as gold. Typically, after a while, gold will start recovering faster than stocks. Krüger noted this in an earlier thread. 

At writing time, the price of gold is still sharply down from a week ago, seemingly correlating with stocks, Bitcoin, and nearly everything else. But if the COVID-19 crisis pushes the world’s leading countries into recession, gold might start rising earlier than typical risk-on assets such as stocks. 

A similar scenario played out during the subprime mortgage crisis. There were several periods during which the price of gold went sharply down, but it recovered faster and stronger than stocks. Will Bitcoin follow suit? It’s too early to tell as it’s never been through a crisis like this. So, let’s leave it at a very careful maybe.

There’s also a theory, laid down by crypto pioneer Nick Szabo, that Bitcoin isn’t a good safe haven for short-term volatility, but a hedge from the current financial system’s inherent flaws. 

“If you are saving for your legacy, and want your savings to be protected from the deeper risks of the coming decades, Bitcoin has a much deeper safety than gold,” he tweeted.

If Szabo is right, Bitcoin may take a bit more time than gold to recover. But in the long-term, it should do just as well, if not better. 

Disclosure: The author of this text owns, or has recently owned, a number of cryptocurrencies, including BTC and ETH.