US jobs report, August 2018

It’s
jobs day in America.
Grigory
Dukor/Reuters

It’s jobs day in America. 

At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the
August jobs
report, and economists forecast it will show that employers
added 190,000 nonfarm payrolls last month — an improvement from
July. 

They forecast that the unemployment rate returned to an 18-year
low of 3.8%, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. 

Several other reports show that many employers are running out of
skilled workers to hire. From job openings exceeding the number
of positions available, to initial jobless claims at the lowest
since 1969, the labor market is still largely in good
shape. 

Even a measure of unemployment that captures discouraged workers,
and those who work part-time but would rather have full-time
jobs, is at a 17-year low. 

Morgan Stanley’s economists are forecasting 194,000 net new jobs,
almost in line with the consensus estimate. Their forecast takes
into account the fact that consumers are feeling confident in the
jobs market, according to the Conference Board’s index in August.

But wage growth remains the laggard of this recovery.

Economists forecast that average hourly earnings rose 0.2%
month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, little-changed from
July. 

They’d be watching for whether the trade
disputes between the US and China are weighing on employers’
ability, at least in the affected industries, to hire or pay
workers more. 

More to come, refresh this page for the latest at 8:30 a.m.
ET.