Stock market impact, analysis of Trump impeachment from 5 experts

On Tuesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that the House of Representatives will open a formal impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump.

The proceedings came after a whistleblower complaint revealed that the President asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, over corruption allegations at least eight times during a July phone call.

Stocks tumbled following the announcement, then gained Wednesday when President Trump signaled that a deal between the US and China could be coming soon. By Thursday, geopolitical fears had taken over investor sentiment again and stocks traded mostly lower.

The impeachment process is happening against a backdrop of mounting geopolitical uncertainty that’s already roiled markets over the summer. US economic data that shows that the trade war is starting to impact US consumers, businesses, and could even drag down the US economy. And outside the US, other large economies are either in recession, like Germany, or precariously on the brink, like Italy.

So far, it’s unclear if the impeachment proceedings will have a direct impact on the market, according to money managers interviewed by Markets Insider. And even though President Trump tweeted that the market would crash if Democrats impeach him, the stock market is still within 3% of a record high.

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“I believe the market is mainly going to look past this,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of the Independent Advisor Alliance told Markets Insider in an interview.

He thinks the market will make a big distinction between Trump being impeached, and him actually being removed from office. At this point, it doesn’t look like there will be enough Senate Republicans willing to vote for Trump’s removal, Zaccarelli said.

Still, industry watchers are split on how the impeachment proceedings may impact other market moving events such as the trade war.

“You could make the argument that he might be more likely to do a deal with China to get the economy going again,” Zaccarelli said.

Given that the trade war has been a major market mover over the last year and a half, that could have a huge impact on US markets.

Business Insider spoke with five money managers about what the impeachment proceedings mean for the stock market and investors going forward. Here’s what they said: