Matthew Rhys and Keri Russell as Philip and Elizabeth Jennings in “The Americans.”FXThe Emmys air on Monday night, and there is some tough competition this year, making it hard to decide who should win in every category.
But it’s easier to figure out who will win, based on precedent and buzz.
“The Handmaid’s Tale,” which won best drama last year, is a favorite to win across all major categories from best drama to best supporting actress. But it could lose in multiple categories to “Game of Thrones,” which wasn’t in the running for last year’s awards. But both of those shows should lose to “The Americans,” which had an impeccable final season and has never won, though it’s deserved all of the drama Emmys for years.
There’s also tight competition among the limited series categories, with incredible shows including “The Assassination of Gianni Versace,” “Godless,” and “Patrick Melrose,” which are all deserving of every award they’re up for on Monday night.
We put together a list of our Emmy predictions, along with who we think should win. We also threw in who got snubbed. So if you’re excited to see the best contenders among all the nominees this year, look no further.
The Emmys, hosted by “SNL’s” Colin Jost and Michael Che, air Monday, September 17 on NBC.
Here’s our list of who will win the Emmys, and who should:
DRAMA SERIES
The nominees:
“The Americans”
“The Crown”
“Game of Thrones”
“The Handmaid’s Tale”
“Stranger Things”
“This Is Us”
“Westworld”
What will win: “Game of Thrones.” Despite its accelerated and lackluster seventh season in 2017, “Game of Thrones” still delivered some excellent episodes and mind-blowing sequences, such as the battle at the end of “The Spoils of War.” 2017 Emmy winner “The Handmaid’s Tale” had a sophomore slump and just wasn’t as popular, so a win for a show on the scale of “Game of Thrones” is probably inevitable.
What should win: “The Americans.” Its sixth and final season was perfect and eloquently marked the end of television’s Golden Age. We’re just glad it was nominated after years and years of snubs, though it absolutely deserves the win in this category. Unfortunately this is the second time the show is nominated in the best drama category, so it doesn’t have much of a chance: it’s more of a sympathy nomination that’s been building for years.
What was snubbed: “Halt and Catch Fire.” Sadly, the four-season AMC series, one of the best dramas to come out of the Golden Age (like “The Americans”), wasn’t nominated for anything and flew under the radar for the majority of its run.
COMEDY SERIES
The nominees:
“Atlanta”
“Barry”
“Black-ish”
“Curb Your Enthusiasm”
“Glow”
“Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“Silicon Valley”
“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
What will win: “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.” This would be a surprising win over defending champ “Atlanta,” but it swept the Golden Globes and is lauded by critics. It was basically made for awards season, but not in a bad way.
What should win: “Atlanta.” Season two broke boundaries, even for this show’s standards, and it absolutely deserves Emmy number two.
What was snubbed: “The Good Place.” Albeit in a very different way than FX’s “Atlanta,” NBC’s “The Good Place” is groundbreaking comedy that has completely transformed what a network comedy can be. It should be a frontrunner, but didn’t even get a nomination.
LIMITED SERIES
The nominees:
“The Alienist”
“The Assassination of Gianni Versace”
“Genius: Picasso”
“Godless”
“Patrick Melrose”
Who will win: “The Assassination of Gianni Versace.” The Emmys love Ryan Murphy content, and if “the People vs OJ Simpson” is any indication, the second season of “American Crime Story” will sweep the awards this year. And it deserves the win for its unique take on the story of a serial killer that focuses on the victims, not just the monster.
Who should win: “Godless.” By embracing every cliche about westerns, “Godless” was somehow something truly unique, bolstered by an incredible cast including Michelle Dockery, Jeff Daniels, and Meritt Weaver (all nominees). We also wouldn’t be upset if “Patrick Melrose” wins.
Who was snubbed: “The Terror.” It is an absolute shame that the best television show of 2018 wasn’t nominated in any category. “The Terror” is revolutionary television in so many ways. It deserved better, and should have been an absolute shoe-in for a nomination and the win. Netflix’s “American Vandal” deserved a nomination as well for its biting commentary on the true crime obsessed culture.
LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
The nominees:
Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”
Ed Harris, “Westworld”
Matthew Rhys, “The Americans”
Milo Ventimiglia, “This Is Us”
Jeffrey Wright, “Westworld”
Who will win: Matthew Rhys. His portrayal of troubled KGB spy Philip Jennings has been the best performance on TV for years, overshadowed by more popular performers on higher profile shows like Bryan Cranston of “Breaking Bad” and Jon Hamm of “Mad Men.” Of all the nominations for “The Americans,” Rhys is the mostly likely to win. He’s been nominated a twice in this category for the series, and this is his last chance.
Who should win: Matthew Rhys. By a long shot. Every other nominee has quite a few more seasons to go into their series runs, and this is Rhys’ last chance.
Who was snubbed: Lee Pace, “Halt and Catch Fire.” Pace’s subdued performance as power hungry tech genius Joe Macmillan flew mostly under the radar. But his ability to make the audience so emotionally connected to his character, (a pretty terrible person), was not easy and should’ve been awarded and recognized more than it was.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
The nominees:
Claire Foy, “The Crown”
Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black”
Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve”
Keri Russell, “The Americans”
Evan Rachel Wood, “Westworld”
Who will win: Elisabeth Moss. Moss will without a doubt win for her performance in season two of “The Handmaid’s Tale.” She really gave it her all in an otherwise disappointing season, and did things no one could have imagined any actor was capable of doing.
Who should win: Keri Russell. Moss certainly deserves her likely win. But for the past five years, Russell has been doing some of the best acting in television history on “The Americans” as the cold, dutiful, but sometimes conflicted KGB spy Elizabeth Jennings. She’s been nominated multiple times, and now is her last chance to win an Emmy.
Who was snubbed: Mackenzie Davis, “Halt and Catch Fire.” I will never stop talking about this show. Davis, who is sliding her way into major films (including “Blade Runner” and “Tully”) definitely has Oscars and Emmys in her future.
LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
The nominees:
Donald Glover, “Atlanta”
Bill Hader, “Barry”
William H. Macy, “Shameless”
Ted Danson, “The Good Place”
Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish”
Who will win: Donald Glover. He won last year, so has an advantage over everyone else. There is a chance that Bill Hader could steal two wins in a row from Glover for his layered performance in season one of “Barry,” but Glover’s submitted “Atlanta” episode was his best performance yet, so it’s not likely.
Who should win: Ted Danson. There is no one else on the planet who could have pulled off what Danson did in season two of “The Good Place,” which I won’t describe because I don’t want to ruin it.
Who was snubbed: Thomas Middleditch wasn’t nominated for “Silicon Valley” this year despite it being one of his best seasons, but we’re not too gloomy about it.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
The nominees:
Pamela Adlon, “Better Things”
Allison Janney, “Mom”
Issa Rae, “Insecure”
Tracey Ellis Ross, “Black-ish”
Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie”
Rachel Brosnahan, “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Who will win: Rachel Brosnahan. The beloved Amazon series wouldn’t have worked without her. She has so much fun with her performance, especially in her scenes performing stand-up, that always bring so much to her erratic character.
Who should win: Rachel Brosnahan.
Who was snubbed: Kirsten Bell, “The Good Place” and Rachel Bloom, “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend.” Neither would have won since no one stands a chance agains Brosnahan, but both deserved a nom.
LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
The nominees:
Antonia Banderas, “Genius: Picasso”
Darren Criss, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “Patrick Melrose”
Jeff Daniels, “The Looming Tower”
John Legend, “Jesus Christ Superstar Live”
Jesse Plemons, “Black Mirror: USS Callister”
Who will win: Darren Criss. Criss, whose previous credits included Broadway musicals and “Glee,” stunned everyone with his gripping and at times nauseating (in a good, acting way) performance as serial killer Andrew Cunanan.
Who should win: Darren Criss or Benedict Cumberbatch, who surprised people in a similar way with his wild, committed, and sometimes hilarious performance in the dark but vibrant Showtime miniseries.
Who was snubbed: Jared Harris, “The Terror.” The real terror is that this show didn’t get any nominations.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
The nominees:
Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Cult”
Michelle Dockery, “Godless”
Edi Falco, “Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders”
Regina King, “Seven Seconds”
Jessica Biel, “The Sinner”
Laura Dern, “The Tale”
Who will win: Laura Dern. Dern put her heart and soul into this brutal performance, and it would be downright insulting if she wasn’t recognized for it with a win.
Who should win: Laura Dern.
Who was snubbed: Hayley Atwell, “Howard’s End.” Atwell is truly extraordinary in this otherwise quite ordinary adaptation.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
The nominees:
Nikolaj Coster-Waldou, “Game of Thrones”
Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”
Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland”
David Harbour, “Stranger Things”
Matt Smith, “The Crown”
Joseph Fiennes, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Who will win: Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones.” Emmy voters love him, and he is fantastic, so he’ll probably win just by being nominated. Dinklage was fine in season seven, but he didn’t have that much to do. And none of his work in it is really worthy of a win compared to the other nominees, including his co-worker Nikolaj Coster-Waldeau.
Who should win: Matt Smith, “The Crown.” Smith really showed his chops in the second and his final season of the Netflix drama, and did an excellent job portraying a conflicted man in an unraveling marriage, and he got better and better as the show dug deeper into Prince Philip’s dark past.
Who was snubbed: Noah Emmerich, “The Americans.” Have you noticed a trend in the snubs sections of this list? Good. Emmerich never got the credit he deserved for his subtle but often gut-wrenching performance as Stan Beeman, an FBI agent unaware of his best friend’s true idenity as a KGB spy. The final season built up to Stan’s realization at a grueling but perfect pace, and Emmerich said so much, often without saying anything at all.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
The nominees:
Lena Heady, “Game of Thrones”
Millie Bobby Brown, “Stranger Things”
Vanessa Kirby, “The Crown”
Alexis Bledel, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Ann Dowd, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Yvonne Strahovski, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Thandie Newton, “Westworld”
Who will win: Alexis Bledel. Bledel won last year in the guest actress category, but this nomination would allow her to get on the primetime stage to accept her award. Another likely candidate is Lena Heady, who did some impressively restrained work on season seven of “Thrones.”
Who should win: Vanessa Kirby. Kirby did her best work in her final season as Princess Margaret, and steals every scene she is in, while letting co-star Claire Foy carry their scenes together. Kirby’s skill was essential to bringing Margaret’s story to life on “The Crown,” and certainly paved the way for Helena Bonham Carter to take over in season three.
Who was snubbed: Holly Taylor, “The Americans,” who always matched the talents of the incredible and seasoned actors playing her parents. Aubrey Plaza could also have gotten nominated for her role on FX’s “Legion.”
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
The nominees:
Brian Tyree Henry, “Atlanta”
Henry Winkler, “Barry”
Louie Anderson, “Baskets”
Alec Baldwin, “SNL”
Kenan Thompson, “SNL”
Tony Shalhoub, “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Tituss Burgess, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
Who will win: Tony Shalhoub or Alec Baldwin. Shaloub won multiple Emmys for “Monk,” so he has an advantage. But Baldwin is hot off of his dated and overdone Trump impersonation on “SNL” that voters loved enough last year to give him the Emmy, and they probably will again.
Who should win: Brian Tyree Henry. Henry really had a chance to shine in “Robbin’ Season,” way more than he did in season one. He did some of the best performing of the year in both dramatic and comedic ways.
Who was snubbed: William Jackson Harper, “The Good Place.” Chidi is a frustrating character most of the time, but Harper manages to make his obsession with ethics and anxiety about something as mundane as picking out a pair of socks something to look forward to — especially when all of the characters on the show are sick of him.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
The nominees:
Zazie Beetz, “Atlanta”
Betty Gilpin, “Glow”
Laurie Metcalf, “Roseanne”
Aidy Bryant, “SNL”
Leslie Jones, “SNL”
Kate McKinnon, “SNL”
Alex Borstein, “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Megan Mullaly, “Will and Grace”
Who will win: Kate McKinnon. McKinnon has been the defending champ for two years. She did a lot on “SNL” this season, and carried a weak year.
Who should win: Betty Gilpin. What Elisabeth Moss is doing for dramatic acting on “The Handmaid’s Tale,” Gilpin is doing for comedic acting on “Glow.” Gilpin should win this by a long shot, but it’s a long shot.
Who was snubbed: D’Arcy Carden, “The Good Place” and Rita Moreno, “One Day at a Time.” They’d have no chance at winning, but their presence is essential to making their characters and their shows work.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
The nominees:
Jeff Daniels, “Godless”
Brandon Victor Dixon, “Jesus Christ Superstar”
Ricky Martin, “Assassination of Gianni Versaci”
Edgar Ramirez, “Assassination of Gianni Versace”
Finn Whitrock, “Assassination of Gianni Versace”
Michael Stuhlbarg, “The Looming Tower”
John Leguizamo, “Waco”
Who will win: Jeff Daniels, “Godless.” Daniels is an awards-friendly actor and has won Emmys in the past, so he has an advantage.
Who should win: Ricky Martin. Martin didn’t have much to do, but he put so much into it and is a really, really great actor.
Who was snubbed: Brendan Fraser “Trust,” Tobias Menzies “The Terror.” They wouldn’t have won, but both actors were important parts of the shows they were in, and it’s a shame they weren’t recognized.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
The nominees:
Adina Porter, “American Horror Story: Cult”
Letitia Wright, “Black Mirror: Black Museum”
Merritt Weaver, “Godless”
Sara Bereilles, “Jesus Chris Superstar”
Penelope Cruz, “Assassination of Gianni Versace”
Judith Light, “Assassination of Gianni Versace”
Who will win: Penelope Cruz. Cruz did some of her best work since “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” as Donatella Versace on the FX series. She brought empathy to a woman who has, for a long time, been the butt of way too many jokes.
Who should win: Judith Light. Light got a nomination is this category instead of guest actress despite being in only two episodes. And she deserves it. Her performance as a woman coming to terms with secrets her murdered husband kept from her for decades is a career best.
Who was snubbed: Nive Nielsen, “The Terror.” Nielsen was the heart of the horror series, literally without saying a word. She should have at least been added as a nominee.
VARIETY TALK SERIES
The nominees:
“The Daily Show with Trevor Noah”
“Full Frontal with Samantha Bee”
“Jimmy Kimmel Live”
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver”
“The Late Late Show with James Corden”
“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert”
Who will win: “Last Week Tonight.” John Oliver, once again, leads a team that is doing not only great comedy, but great investigative journalism.
Who should win: “Last Week Tonight.”
Who was snubbed: “At Home with Amy Sedaris.” The show is weird, but wonderful.
REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
The nominees:
“The Amazing Race”
“American Ninja Warrior”
“Project Runway”
“Ru Paul’s Drag Race”
“Top Chef”
“The Voice”
Who will win: “Ru Paul’s Drag Race.” Do we even have to explain at this point?
Who should win: “Ru Paul’s Drag Race.”
Who was snubbed: “Nailed It!” The Netflix baking competition for people who have very little experience baking is so delightful and clever, we’re kind of surprised it wasn’t included, but it’s heavy satirical nature probably didn’t help voters take it seriously.
