What Netflix’s 2020 TV cancelations mean for diversity in streaming

Here’s a bad feeling; stop me if you’ve had it before.

It’s 2020. You’re on social media, skimming the day’s headlines. A photo from a TV show you like pops up. It’s an unexpected bright spot in your , until…ah, there it is. That show is getting canceled — and its female/LGBTQ/POC cast and/or creators are out of a job.

“They don’t care about ratings. What they really care about is subscribers.”

This year, a global health crisis ran headlong into the economy. In entertainment, that mammoth collision became a kind of stress test for industry priorities — one used as an excuse to abandon diverse and inclusive TV shows. 

As COVID-19 shut down productions across networks and streaming services, TV execs scrambled to adjust programming schedules and made calls on series expected not only in 2020, but also on slates for 2021, 2022, and beyond. As a result, a slew of shows got the boot. 

“The recent cancelation of progressive shows with diverse casts speaks to a larger systemic issue that networks and distribution companies have in following through on their commitments to diversity and inclusion,” says Kristen Marston, culture and entertainment advocacy director at in an email to Mashable. “Shows that position BIPOC, women, and LGBTQIA+ stories must not only be greenlit, but supported with resources and promotion to elevate them.”

Accusations have been particularly pointed when it comes to Netflix, which announced the ends of more than 25 original series this year.

Which series did and didn’t make that cut is valuable data for television’s ongoing diversity and inclusion dialogue, agrees Dr. Darnell Hunt, professor of sociology and co-author of . But those trends you may be seeing on social media, Hunt says, are likely missing critical context.

“Compared to other digital platforms and networks, Netflix is ahead of the game on certain key statistics,” Hunt tells Mashable over the phone, citing the streaming service’s notably diverse representation on-camera and behind-the-scenes during the . Yes, it’s a good sign for industry diversity, Hunt says. But it’s also proven hugely beneficial to Netflix’s bottom line.

“The business model for Netflix is different than what it was for the traditional broadcast networks,” Hunt explains.“[Broadcast networks] wanted to create programming that attracted a large audience [for advertisements], which also meant a white audience. So people of color, women, and queer folks were marginalized in those stories. With Netflix, that goes out the window. They don’t care about ratings. What they really care about is subscribers.”

“Compared to other digital platforms and networks, Netflix is ahead of the game on certain key statistics.”

In simple terms: At Netflix, appealing to a large subscribership — effectively a collection of various sized audiences all interested in the same catalogue, but not necessarily the same titles within that catalogue — directly benefits their business. It doesn’t matter who’s paying that monthly subscription fee or even, in some ways, what they’re watching.

In striving to please as many customers as possible, Netflix has increased diversity across crucial metrics. The latest Hollywood Diversity Report, released in October, has the data to back that up, and indicates overall improvement in diversity across the television industry. That’s great news.

But, of course, that report doesn’t account for the 2019-2020 TV season or the present 2020-2021 TV season — both of which were impacted by the pandemic and are the focus of many viewer concerns. Experts such as Hunt aren’t likely to release their findings on those data sets until 2021 or later, and Hunt is hesitant to make any predictions in the meantime. Maybe suspicious viewers are right, and diversity is taking a hit. But that said, if you just compare cancelations to cancelations, Netflix’s 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 TV seasons are promisingly similar.

At Netflix this year, the unexpected cancelations of , , and , all of which were previously renewed (GLOW had already started production in March when lockdowns kicked in) were attributed to the pandemic.

Other cancelations on the service were not — including Patriot Act with Hasan Minhaj, Turn Up Charlie, Chilling Adventures of Sabrina, Altered Carbon, The Dark Crystal: The Age of Resistance, Astronomy Club: The Sketch Show, Merry Happy Whatever, Spinning Out, Messiah, October Faction, Teenage Bounty Hunters, V Wars, AJ & The Queen, and more. 

“We also do make a large amount of first season shows, which sometimes feels [like] we have more first season cancelations.”

With or without a pandemic, that seems like a staggering number of cancelations. But percentage-wise it’s on par with Netflix’s 2018-2019 season — and the rest of the industry, as Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos and global head of TV Bela Bajaria in September while speaking at the 2020 Paley International Council Summit.

“We also do make a large amount of first season shows, which sometimes feels [like] we have more first season cancelations,” Bajaria said. “I also think you have to look at The Crown, with Season 4 launching now, and Grace & Frankie [going into Season 7 in 2021] and The Ranch [which ended after the second part of Season 4 debuted in January]. We’ve had long running shows.”

Hunt says Netflix’s season-based greenlight model can be a great thing for underrepresented voices, one that creates opportunities for female, POC, and LGBTQ artists to produce multiple episodes of stories audiences haven’t seen before. But it stands out that the three long-running series Bajaria named as major successes at Netflix all feature predominantly white casts and are primarily credited to white directors, writers, and producers.

Why Netflix goes the distance with certain shows and not others has always baffled subscribers, and on occasion, angered some pretty vocal fanbases. (Search The OA, Anne with an E, Santa Clarita Diet, Sense8, One Day at a Time, Lucifer, or another popular ex-Netflix title on Twitter to get a sense of that regularly intense atmosphere.) 

“Some content works. Some just doesn’t.”

But when that question of what does and doesn’t get renewed is raised within the context of cultural representation, Netflix executives’ personal motivations become central to assessing the platform’s allyship. Are these leaders in streaming upholding an ethical standard for their rapidly evolving industry? Or are they abiding by a business model that relies on disingenuous, performative series orders, but does not encourage the long term support of those shows? 

Business analyst Dan Rayburn says cancelations at Netflix are first and foremost decided by data.

“[Netflix is] simply making a calculated business decision based on the best place to spend their money,” Rayburn asserts in a phone interview. “Some content works. Some just doesn’t.”

Undeniably, popular new content is critical to the company’s long-term success, says Rayburn. Unlike HBO Max, Disney+, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video, and other streaming services with diversified revenue streams that include merchandise, advertisements, and more, Netflix’s earnings come exclusively from subscription fees.

“Many years ago, Netflix shifted their model to original content because they realized original content is what drives new subs,” Rayburn says. “Now, you [Netflix] have to create cartoons, documentaries, thrillers, all kinds of content. It’s such a wide depth and breadth of people using your service that it’s only natural you’re going to do one season of a show, and if doesn’t have the traction you hoped for, [cancel it].” 

With one of the largest collections — if not collection — of data on modern viewing habits out there, Netflix undoubtedly considers dozens of factors when deciding what to cancel, despite rarely sharing its data with the public. But the possibility of a negative reaction from viewers if a show is ended, Rayburn insists, should never enter into that equation. And when it does, he says, subscribers pay.

“There is a familiarity with that idea of being devalued in the workplace, of not being visible or recognized, of not getting promoted.”

“Why do you think [Netflix] raised rates twice in the last year? Because the number one cost of any of these services is content creation. Consumers want more, more, more. But, they don’t want to pay more.”

A social psychologist at UCLA and Hunt’s co-author on the Hollywood Diversity Report, Dr. Ana-Christina Ramón, however, says not accounting for the emotional effect cancelations can have on viewers tends to be a mistake in the streaming age.

“Too often the cancelations come after you’ve already seen an entire season, whereas in the past, you might’ve only caught an episode or two before it was canceled on broadcast,” Ramón observes to Mashable in a call.

“[Binge watchers] get tied to these characters and storylines in a deep way. And when you’re from a group that’s underrepresented or if you’re just interested in seeing more representation, then [cancelations that seem to go against that desired trend] can be more affecting.”

Ramón says watching directors, writers, producers, and actors from underrepresented groups cope with the ends of their projects on social media sometimes makes processing the loss even more difficult for fans. And in cases where allegations of prejudiced, toxic behavior are later made about the actual working environments of those programs — as was the case with both and — reactions can be especially raw.

“For people of color in the United States, there is a familiarity with that idea of being devalued in the workplace, of not being visible or recognized, of not getting promoted,” Ramón says.

“I think that’s what makes it so personal for a lot of people. They can identify with that experience and they want [the artists they admire] to excel. It’d be great for the show to go on if you’ve already identified with it, but you also just want those real people to be successful.”

“It’s building trust, which is another way of saying you’re building a brand.” 

Ramón is far from naive about the realities of competition in entertainment; of course, some TV shows must be canceled and some people will be disappointed by that. Still, separating emotion from major decision-making within an artistic industry doesn’t make logical sense to the social scientist.

“Some people don’t care about anything other than the numbers. And so, instead of having an overall view of how [the TV industry actually comes together] and how it’s all interconnected, then they make decisions that don’t help them retain loyalty from the customer.”

“It’s building trust,” agrees Hunt. “Which is another way of saying you’re building a brand.”

“Netflix has long been a home for LGBTQ stories and storytelling,” says GLAAD‘s director of entertainment media, Jeremy Blacklow, when asked about recent Netflix cancelations via email. “As Netflix continues to greenlight and develop new series, we expect to see a continued focus on LGBTQ stories and characters, as we’ve seen in recent groundbreaking series like Special, Sex Education, Elite, Dead to Me, Hollywood, Tales of The City, Sense8, and Deaf U.”

Hunt and Ramón agree Netflix can reinforce that kind of trust with audiences by replacing series canceled in 2020 with shows that meet similar representation standards. And while Hunt and Ramón, who have both worked directly with Netflix in the past on improving diversity at the platform, seem fairly confident that will happen, they understand concerned subscribers speaking out now.

“We have a lot of examples where viewer feedback made a difference,” mentions Hunt. “There are a number of factors that go into that, but all things equal, I think viewers can make the difference.”

Representatives for Netflix declined to comment on the record for this story.